Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 24, to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser Sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration conditions in 
the Fraser River watershed.	

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided a forecast of the 2020 Fraser River Sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel for pre-season 
planning. The majority of Sockeye returning in 2020 are recruits from adult spawners in 2015 (age 5) and 2016 (age 4) both of which had below average spawners for the 
respective cycle lines. DFO has advised that Fraser River Sockeye salmon forecasts for 2020 continue to be highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival rates 
and uncertainty about changes in their productivity as a result of changing ocean conditions from 2013 to 2019 that included the warm blob and an El Nino event. For 
pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 941,000 fish for all management 
groups. In addition the November 2018 landslide at Big Bar in the Fraser River upstream of Lillooet will continue to be an impediment to upstream migration for 
Sockeye, Chinook, Coho and Steelhead destined for spawning habitats upstream of the slide. Significant work has occurred over the past several months to improve 
passage for fish combined with assessment programs to evaluate passage success as well as brood stock collection for enhancement purposes. Additional information and 
regular updates on passage can be found at the following link. 
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/pacific-smon-pacifique/big-bar-landslide-eboulement/index-eng.html.

Gill net test fishing Sockeye catches in the Fraser River at Whonnock, Cottonwood and at Qualark Creek continue to be low in recent days.  The Round Island and Area 20 
gill net test fishery Sockeye catches have also been low with Area 20 showing an increasing trend over the last 3 days from 13 on July 21 to 91 on July 23. DNA samples 
from the Whonnock test fishery on July 19 to 21 indicate that 17% are Early Stuart Sockeye, 56% are Early Summer stocks and 28% are Summer run stocks. DNA samples from 
the Area 20 gill net test fishery on July 19 and 20 indicated 0% were Early Stuart, 34% Early Summer, 64% Summer run stocks and 1% Late run stocks. The current 
diversion rate through Johnstone Strait has increased to 16% based on the Area 20 and Round Island test fishery catches during the last 5 days.

Purse seine test fisheries catches in Areas 12 and 20 have also been low ranging from 11 to 42 in Area 12 and 88 to 214 in Area 20. DNA samples from Area 12 taken on 
July 21 indicated the stock composition was 0% Early Stuart, 56% Early Summer, and 44% Summer run stocks. In Area 20 DNA samples from July 21 indicated the stock 
composition was 1% Early Stuart, 30% Early Summer, 66% Summer and 3% Late run stocks.

The total Sockeye escapement to July 23 is estimated to be 61,600 of which 13,400 are Early Stuart Sockeye, 39,100 are Early Summer run stocks, 9,000 are Summer run 
stocks and 100 Late Run stocks. In-season assessment of Early Stuart Sockeye to date has suggested the return is similar to the pre-season median forecast of 13,000 
Sockeye with slightly later Area 20 timing of July 6.  In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after identification of their peak 
migration through marine areas.

The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 23 was 15.7° Celsius which is 1.6° Celsius below average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to increase 
to 16.9° Celsius by July 29. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on July 23 was 7,832 cubic meters per second which is 62% above the average discharge for this date. 
Discharge levels are forecast to decrease to 6,962 cubic meters per second by July 29.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years, Early Summer based 
on the historical weighted all years median excluding Pitt and Chilliwack, and Summer run Sockeye based on the historical median for all years excluding Harrison. The 
Late run management adjustment is based on the weighted 2020 cycle line median excluding Birkenhead. 

Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of uncertainty in the 
forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an attempt to assist in 
achievement of identified escapement objectives for the different run timing groups. Returns at the p50 forecast level for all management groups in 2020 are below 
levels that generate allowable harvest and as such will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) of 10% which will not require 
modifications to the management adjustments. If in-season run sizes increase to p75 levels or higher, modifications to the Late Run LAER and management adjustment may 
occur as required.

Currently, Fraser River First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) Sockeye fisheries are closed due a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and the 
earlier timed Early Summer run stocks. The same window closure has recently ended in marine areas however there is no available TAC at this time for any run timing 
group for fisheries to harvest. The start-up of Sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated in 2020 unless run sizes increase to the p75 level or higher which 
has not occurred to date. Very limited fishing opportunities directed at Chinook salmon for ceremonial purposes have occurred to date with sockeye non-retention 
regulations in place. FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local 
area. Commercial and recreational fisheries are not anticipated on Fraser River Sockeye in 2020. 

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on Tuesday, July 28, 2020.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Regional Salmon Team - DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca.

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0728
Sent July 24, 2020 at 1426

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Visit Fisheries and Oceans Canada on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Printed from the Pacific Region web site on January 13, 2026 at 0745