Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 21, to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser Sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration conditions in 
the Fraser River watershed.	

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided a forecast of the 2020 Fraser River Sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel for pre-season 
planning. The majority of Sockeye returning in 2020 are recruits from adult spawners in 2015 (age 5) and 2016 (age 4) both of which had below average spawners for the 
respective cycle lines. DFO has advised that Fraser River Sockeye salmon forecasts for 2020 continue to be highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival rates 
and uncertainty about changes in their productivity as a result of changing ocean conditions from 2013 to 2019 that included the warm blob and an El Nino event. For 
pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 941,000 fish for all management 
groups. In addition the November 2018 landslide at Big Bar in the Fraser River upstream of Lillooet will continue to be an impediment to upstream migration for 
Sockeye, Chinook, Coho and Steelhead destined for spawning habitats upstream of the slide. Significant work has occurred over the past several months to improve 
passage for fish combined with assessment programs to evaluate passage success as well as brood stock collection for enhancement purposes. Additional information and 
regular updates on passage can be found at the following link: 
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/pacific-smon-pacifique/big-bar-landslide-eboulement/index-eng.html.

Gill net test fishing Sockeye catches in the Fraser River at Whonnock, Cottonwood and at Qualark Creek have been very low in recent days consistent with the 
expectations of a low return in 2020. The Round Island  and Area 20 gill net test fishery Sockeye catches have also been low recently despite some larger catches in 
Area 20 from July 13 to 15. DNA samples from the Whonnock test fishery on July 17 to 18 indicate that 23% are Early Stuart Sockeye, 42% are Early Summer stocks and 34% 
are Summer run stocks. DNA samples from the Area 20 test fishery on July 17 indicated 2% were Early Stuart, 56% Early Summer and 42% Summer run stocks. The current 
diversion rate through Johnstone Strait is estimated to be 9% based on the Area 20 and Round Island test fishery catches during the last 5 days.

Purse seine test fisheries began on July 20 in Area 12 and today in Area 20. The catch in Area 12 from yesterday was low with 42 Sockeye in 5 sets.
The total Sockeye escapement to July 20 is estimated to be 45,100 of which 12,400 are Early Stuart Sockeye, 26,800 are Early Summer run stocks and 5,900 are Summer run 
stocks. In-season assessment of Early Stuart Sockeye to date has suggested the return is similar to the pre-season median forecast of 13,000 Sockeye with slightly 
later Area 20 timing of July 6. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine 
areas. 

The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 20 was 15.0° Celsius, which is 1.9° Celsius below average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to increase 
to 16.2° Celsius by July 26. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on July 20 was 8,498 cubic meters per second which is 71% above the average discharge for this date. 
Discharge levels are forecast to increase to 8,621 cubic meters per second by July 26.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years, Early Summer based 
on the historical weighted all years median excluding Pitt and Chilliwack, and Summer run Sockeye based on the historical median for all years excluding Harrison. The 
Late run management adjustment is based on the weighted 2020 cycle line median excluding Birkenhead. 

Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of uncertainty in the 
forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an attempt to assist in 
achievement of identified escapement objectives for the different run timing groups. Returns at the p50 forecast level for all management groups in 2020 are below 
levels that generate allowable harvest and as such will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) of 10% which will not require 
modifications to the management adjustments. If in-season run sizes increase to p75 levels or higher, modifications to the Late Run LAER and management adjustment may 
occur as required.

Currently, First Nations Food, Social and Ceremonial (FSC) Sockeye fisheries are closed due to a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and the earlier timed 
Early Summer run stocks. The start-up of Sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated in 2020 unless run sizes increase to the p75 level or higher which has not 
occurred to date. Very limited fishing opportunities directed at Chinook salmon for ceremonial purposes have occurred to date. FSC fishers in marine approach areas as 
well as the Fraser River are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. Commercial and recreational fisheries are not 
anticipated on Fraser River Sockeye in 2020. 

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday, July 24, 2020.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Regional Salmon Team - DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca.

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0704
Sent July 21, 2020 at 1559

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Visit Fisheries and Oceans Canada on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Printed from the Pacific Region web site on April 10, 2026 at 0515