Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 17, to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser Sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration conditions in 
the Fraser River watershed.	

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided a forecast of the 2020 Fraser River Sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel for pre-season 
planning. The majority of Sockeye returning in 2020 will be recruits from adult spawners in 2015 (age 5) and 2016 (age 4) both of which had below average spawners for 
the respective cycle lines. DFO has advised that Fraser River Sockeye salmon forecasts for 2020 continue to be highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival 
rates and uncertainty about changes in their productivity as a result of changing ocean conditions from 2013 to 2019 that included the warm blob and an El Nino event. 
In addition the November 2018 landslide at Big Bar in the Fraser River upstream of Lillooet will continue to be an impediment to upstream migration for Sockeye, 
Chinook, Coho and Steelhead destined for spawning habitats upstream of the slide. Significant work has occurred over the past several months to improve passage for 
fish combined with assessment programs to evaluate passage success as well as brood stock collection for enhancement purposes. Additional information and regular 
updates on passage can be found at the following link. http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/pacific-smon-pacifique/big-bar-landslide-eboulement/index-eng.html.

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 23 at Whonnock, July 8 at Cottonwood and July 11 at Qualark.  The Round Island  gill net test fishery began 
operations on July 9 while the Area 20 gill net test fishery began on July 11. To date Sockeye catches have been low in all test fisheries except in Area 20 where 
catches on July 14 and 15 were 274 and 297 respectively, followed by a decline to 16 on July 16.   DNA samples from the Whonnock test fishery on July 12 to 14 indicate 
that 33% are Early Stuart Sockeye and 67% are Early Summer stocks with 41% being in the Nadina/Bowron group. DNA samples from the Area 20 test fishery on July 11 to 12 
indicated 7% were Early Stuart, 78% Early Summer and 15% Summer run stocks. The current diversion rate through Johnstone Strait is estimated to be 1% based on the Area 
20 and Round Island test fishery catches during the last 5 days.

Purse seine test fisheries are scheduled to begin on July 20 in Area 12 and July 21 in Area 20.  

The total escapement estimate to July 16 is estimated to be 22,700. In-season assessment of Early Stuart Sockeye will be provided later in July once more information 
becomes available. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine areas. 

The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 16 was 14.8° Celsius which is 1.7° Celsius below average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to increase 
to 17.1° Celsius by July 22. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on July 16 was 8,072 cubic meters per second which is 51% above the average discharge for this date. 
Discharge levels are forecast to drop to 7,297 cubic meters per second by July 22.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years, Early Summer based 
on the historical weighted all years median excluding Pitt and Chilliwack, and Summer run Sockeye based on the historical median for all years excluding Harrison. The 
Late run management adjustment is based on the weighted 2020 cycle line median excluding Birkenhead. 

Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of uncertainty in the 
forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an attempt to assist in 
achievement of identified escapement objectives for the different run timing groups. Returns at the p50 forecast level for all management groups in 2020 are below 
levels that generate allowable harvest and as such will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) of 10% which will not require 
modifications to the management adjustments. If in-season run sizes increase to p75 levels or higher, modifications to the Late Run LAER and management adjustment may 
occur as required.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) Sockeye fisheries are closed due a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and the earlier timed Early 
Summer run stocks. Very limited fishing opportunities directed at Chinook salmon for ceremonial purposes have occurred to date. The start-up of Sockeye directed FSC 
fisheries is not anticipated in 2020 unless run sizes increase to the p75 level or higher. FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are 
requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. Commercial and recreational fisheries are not anticipated on Fraser River Sockeye in 
2020. 

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on Tuesday, July 21, 2020.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Regional Salmon Team - DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca.

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0694
Sent July 17, 2020 at 1348

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Visit Fisheries and Oceans Canada on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Printed from the Pacific Region web site on August 8, 2026 at 0828