Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met on Tuesday, July 25 to receive an update on the 
migration of the Fraser sockeye and pink runs to date and review the status of 
migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Gill net test fishing catches remain very poor in both the marine and in-river 
testing areas.  Purse seine test fishing began in Area 12 on July 24 while Area 
20 began on July 25.  Catches during the first day in Area 12 and the last 3 
days of Reef Net observations were also very low.  Stock identification 
information is showing a decline in the proportion of Early Stuart sockeye in 
Area 20 with continued presence in Area 12 samples.  Early Summer and Summer 
run stocks are currently comprising the largest fraction in both approach 
areas.  No late run stocks have been observed at this time. 

Sample sizes from both in-river and marine test fisheries have remained low 
which results in a higher level of uncertainty in stock composition estimates.  
Hell's Gate observations have been extremely low in recent days.  During 
today's Panel call, the start-up of the purse seine test fishery in Area 13 was 
delayed to Monday July 31, with confirmation to be made during the next Panel 
meeting on July 28. Based on the gill net test fishery catches in Areas 12 and 
20, the diversion rate through Johnstone Strait has increased to 28% which 
remains below the pre-season predicted rate of 51% for the entire season.

The most recent DNA samples taken in the marine test fisheries show sockeye 
stock compositions in Area 20 of approximately 0% Early Stuart, 48% Early 
Summer and 52% Summer run stocks.  In Area 12 the stock composition was 23% 
Early Stuart, 32% Early Summer and 45% Summer run stocks. 

During the call today, the Fraser Panel made no changes to the Early Stuart run 
size of 50,000 with an Area 20 peak run timing of July 3. The estimated 
escapement past Mission of Early Stuart sockeye as of July 24 is 43,800 fish. 

Early Summer run stocks are also tracking well below the p25 forecast of 
166,000 with some of the later timing stocks in this group not being observed 
at this time. During the Panel call today the decision was made to reduce the 
run size for Early Summers to the p25 run size as an interim step with the 
anticipation of further reductions if the later timed stocks also return lower 
than forecast.  At this run size there is no TAC available and as such no 
sockeye directed fisheries are being considered at this time.  The estimated 
escapement of Early Summer-run and Summer-run sockeye past Mission through July 
24 is only 18,800 and 4,500 respectively. Both are well below the expected 
levels for this date.

On July 24, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 3,344 m3/s, which is 
approximately 30% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the 
Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 24 was 17.4°C, which is 0.2°C lower than 
average for this date due largely to cooler air temperatures in recent days.   
The forecast is for water temperatures to increase to 18.8°C by July 30. Due to 
the very low discharge levels, water temperatures are influenced more by the 
air temperatures they are exposed to.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management 
adjustments for Early Summer, Summer and Late run sockeye that reflect the 
forecast water temperature and discharge conditions based on the May and June 
information for Early Summer and Summers, and anticipated river entry dates for 
Late run fish. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from 
identified harvest levels and allowed to migrate upstream in an attempt to 
assist in achievement of identified spawner objectives for the different run 
timing groups.  In-season information in the coming weeks will help to inform 
future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer and Summer 
management groups while the Early Stuart and Late run management groups will be 
managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) for each 
group (10% for Early Stuart and 20% for Lates).  There will be no in-season 
estimates of management adjustment for Early Stuart in 2017 as the forecast 
returns are very low across most of the forecast range and it is anticipated 
they will be managed to the LAER, with the expected outcome of a spawning 
escapement well below target.

First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries have been 
restricted by the 4 week window closure protecting Early Stuart and the 
earliest timed Early Summer run stocks with limited fishing opportunities to 
date directed at chinook salmon.  Due to the appearance of lateness and/or 
weakness in the returns of Early Summer and Summer run stocks, the start-up of 
sockeye directed FSC fisheries will continue to be delayed until the 
identification of TAC for Early Summer and/or Summer run sockeye. 

FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested 
to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area.

Given the low returns to date there are no fisheries directed upon Fraser River 
sockeye scheduled at this time, and updates will continue to be provided 
following meetings of the Fraser River Panel on Tuesdays and Fridays of each 
week.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on 
Friday, July 28, 2017.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Jennifer Nener 604-666-0789

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0709
Sent July 25, 2017 at 1519

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