Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 22nd, 2016, to receive an update on the 
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration 
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Gill net test fishing in the marine areas increased considerably this past week 
while the Fraser River gill net test fishery catches fluctuated at low levels. 
Early Summers continue to track below expected compared to the 50% probability 
forecast and timing of the various components of the run timing groups. Hells 
Gate observations have also fluctuated in recent days remaining at low levels. 
The Area 12 purse seine test fishery began on July 21st while Area 20 started 
today. Based on the gill net test catches in the two approach areas the current 
5-day diversion rate through Johnstone Strait is 23% which is well below the 
pre-season forecast of 75% for the season but similar to the diversion rates at 
this time of year in the recent cycle years.

DNA analysis of samples taken in the marine test fisheries show sockeye stock 
compositions in Area 20 of 0% Early Stuart, 51% Early Summer and 49% Summer run 
stocks. In Johnstone Strait the DNA samples indicate a stock composition of 0% 
Early Stuart, 85% Early Summer and 15% Summer run stocks. Sample size has been 
small in Johnstone Strait to date which may be influencing the actual stock 
composition estimates.

During the Panel call today there were no changes made to the current run size 
for Early Stuart sockeye.  The estimated escapement past Mission of Early 
Stuart sockeye as of July 21st is 15,200 fish.

Although it is too early to estimate the run size for the entire Early Summer 
run timing group, the Chilliwack stock is tracking well below the 50% 
probability run size of 138,000.  The remaining Early Summer stocks are also 
tracking below the 50% probability run size but it is too early to determine 
what the run size may be. 

Early Summer and Summer run stocks are continuing to build in marine and in-
river test fishery samples however the overall abundance of the Early Summer 
stocks is lower than expected at this time. Early indications are that Summer 
run stocks are  tracking near the 50% probability forecast of 1,677,000 fish. 
Run-size estimates of both run timing groups should be available within the 
next two weeks after their expected peak migration through marine areas. The 
estimated escapement of Early Summer and Summer run sockeye past Mission 
through July 21st is 75,600 and 9,200 fish respectively. 

On July 21st, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 4,302 cms, which is 
approximately 12% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the 
Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 21st was 18.6°C, which is 1.6°C higher 
than average for this date. The water temperature is forecast to increase to 
20.0°C by July 27th.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management 
adjustments for Early Summer and Summer sockeye that reflect the forecast 
conditions based on the May to June information. Management adjustments are 
additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to 
escape upstream in an attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement 
objectives for the different run timing groups. In-season information over the 
coming weeks will help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for 
the Early Summer and Summer management groups while the Early Stuart and Late 
run management groups will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance 
Exploitation Rate (LAER) for each group (10% for Early Stuart and 20% for 
Lates). There will be no in-season estimates of management adjustment for Early 
Stuart and Late run sockeye in 2016 as the forecast returns are very low across 
the entire forecast range and it is anticipated they will be managed to the 
LAER, with the expected outcome of a spawning escapement well below goal.

To date First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries have 
been restricted by the 3 week Early Stuart window closure as well as the lower 
than expected abundance of Early Summer run sockeye. This has resulted in very 
limited fishing opportunities directed at Chinook salmon. Given the recent 
increase in the abundance of sockeye in the marine test fisheries, limited FSC 
fisheries are expected to commence in the coming days in both the marine areas 
and the Fraser River.

Fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested to 
check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. There are 
no planned commercial or recreational fisheries in 2016 at this time.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on 
Tuesday, July 26, 2016.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Jennifer Nener 604-666-0789

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0720
Sent July 22, 2016 at 1615

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